“Anyway, we’ll see if I’m right on Monday…” was my quote from last week, I believe. Ahem.

Well. I was completely wrong. “Splice” did not come anywhere near “Get Him to the Greek” — or even the dreaded “Killers” — in the weekend boxoffice matchup. But “Shrek Forever After” did come out on top once again, as predicted.

I — and the Flixster data — did show “Greek” besting “Killers,” but the latter did much better than I expected despite miserable reviews. Score one for Lionsgate’s strategy of keeping it away from critics’ eyes before its opening, as those critical drubbings may have driven more of its mainly female audience elsewhere.

Meanwhile, “Prince of Persia” and “Sex and the City 2″ saw sizable dropoffs, while still staying ahead of June 4 openers “Marmaduke” and “Splice” for the weekend, as expected.

Here’s the Bullseye for the four-day holiday weekend of May 28, which “Sex and the City 2” jump-started early with midnight screenings last night. The other wide opener is “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time,” while Jean Pierre Jeunet’s “Micmacs” also bows from Sony Pictures Classics.

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Clearly, we should expect quite a gender divide between those seeking the sparkly sass of the “SATC” crew and those desiring the video-game derived spectacle of “Persia,” though both feature an ocean’s worth of sand.

Here’s Carl DiOrio’s boxoffice preview and the Bullseye for the weekend of May 14 for added context. (I was away in Cannes last week and missed getting the May 21 Bullseye up, which turned out to be a shame. Unlike most outlets, the Flixster data actually predicted an underwhelming opening for the fourth “Shrek” movie, which is where it ultimately ended up.)

Comments and observations after the jump:

Sunday’s boxoffice figures verified that the predictions from last Friday’s Bullseye were pretty accurate.

In particular, I noted that the Flixster Score and activity around “Iron Man 2” coming out of its opening weekend indicated a strong follow-up. In fact, it added $53 million in grosses to its tally, while Russell Crowe’s “Robin Hood” fared much better overseas in its opening weekend than in the U.S. market, where it pulled in a relatively modest $37.1 million. Flixster data that tracked interest versus activity traffic on “Hood” indicated, as I said last week, that it was unlikely to top “Iron Man 2.”

Meanwhile, Summit’s “Letters to Juliet” ($13.8 million) and Fox Searchlight’s “Just Wright” ($8.5 million) fared well enough, and both saw a bump in activity from Friday to Saturday. (”Robin Hood” saw a small decline and a lower-the-expected Flixster Score of 68%.) Both female-skewing films could see surprisingly sustained follow-up next weekend since, despite less than glowing Scores (64% for “Letters”; 57% for “Wright”), they provide a genuine alternative to new wide openers “MacGruber” (skewing heavily male and young) and “Shrek Forever After.”

Check back in a few days for the May 21 weekend Bullseye, where we’ll take a look at just how interest and activity have shifted during the week.

Here’s this week’s Bullseye, which is starting to look like it’s been hit with buckshot full of good ol’ American summer movies.

Carl DiOrio’s boxoffice preview notes the May 14 weekend’s wide openings of “Robin Hood,” “Letters to Juliet” and “Just Wright,” which we’ve been tracking over the last month. A lot of something for everyone.

As usual, last week’s Flixster-supplied Bullseye for the May 7 weekend was bang on the mark.

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Comments and observations after the jump:

Sunday’s boxoffice estimates once again confirmed the near-dead-on predictive targeting of last Thursday’s Bullseye tracking. Of particular note, I pointed out that on Thursday Flixster was suddenly seeing “Iron Man 2″ traffic pacing 12% above last-minute traffic for the year’s biggest opener so far, “Alice in Wonderland,” which opened at $116.1 million.

“Iron Man 2″ opened at an estimated $133.6 million, which is … 15% above the “Alice” opening. That’s pretty tight.

The Jon Favreau-directed sequel has thus far drawn a Flixster Score of 82% based on ratings by more than 225,000 users. So a strong second weekend might be in the offing.

Not quite on the same scale, but Focus Features’ cutesy documentary “Babies‘” saw a 24% rise in interest from Friday to Saturday. So even though it’s only playing in 593 theaters, the movie has strong interest and even landed in the 10th slot for the weekend. Word-of-mouth is clearly positive.

Ain’t nothin’ but a whole lot of Tony Stark this weekend, with boxoffice estimates ranging from $100 million to $160 million or more for Paramount/Marvel’s “Iron Man 2,” which takes flight tonight at midnight. For my money, it’ll be big, but not quite as big as “The Dark Knight’s” $158.4 million opening weekend in July 2008. (Though the last-minute addition of a creepy sneak teaser to J.J. Abrams’ and Steven Spielberg’s “Super 8″ may drive fanboys over the top.)

“Iron Man 2″ is the only wide opener May 7, and it’s already racked up $121.1 million overseas, with the U.K. and South Korea markets the biggest audiences thus far.

For those of you who come out of “IM2″ feeling like you didn’t get enough Sam Jackson as Nick Fury, you can also check out a non-eyepatched Sam-J in Rodrigo Garcia’s “Mother and Child,” which Sony Pictures Classics begins rolling out Friday, as well.

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This week’s Flixster-supplied Bullseye (THR’s fourth installment) is overrun with the growing cluster of tentpoles that typically make up the summer season, with actioners — “IM2,” “Robin Hood,” “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” — thus far taking precedence over comedies. And the last two weeks’ forecasts have been very prescient, so get your hardcore analysis after the jump …

(Here’s last week’s Bullseye and Carl DiOrio’s weekly boxoffice preview for the May 7 weekend for additional info.)

Well, once again Friday’s Bullseye was on target, as this morning’s box office report reflects.

“A Nightmare on Elm Street” certainly killed over the weekend, but Flixster activity around the Freddy film actually dropped by 16% from Friday to Saturday, an unusually steep decline that points to a much weaker second weekend. But as I pointed out on Friday, Flixster’s data had it tracking marginally ahead of activity around “The Final Destination” when it opened at $30 million last August.

Where did “Elm Street” land? $32.2 million. Consider that target hit.

“Iron Man 2” is flying into theaters Friday, so a huge “Elm Street” dropoff won’t be a big surprise, although audiences kept from “IM2″ because of sell-outs could very well roll over to “Elm Street.”

“Nightmare” maintains a 79% positive review score, while “Furry Vengeance” is getting slaughtered at around 48%. Flixster notes that despite “Vengeance’s” low score, “Legion” and “The Wolf Man” both managed to get under that bar this year.

Meanwhile, as “Iron Man 2” has begun rolling out overseas, web and mobile traffic around the pic has shot way, way up: by 50%

Flixster’s 20 million-plus users have been feeding Risky some enlightening info. First, there’s the new weekly Bullseye, which gauges and compiles audience activity around and interest in upcoming film releases.

But then here’s a periodic chart the online-and-mobile entertainment company puts together based on Flixster Scores: The Top 10 Most Anticipated Movies of the Summer. Results after the jump …

Oh my Persia!

Jerry Bruckheimer’s “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” made a big splash on this week’s Bullseye, a full month out from its May 28 release date. Flixster users are clearly eager for some serious supernatural swashbuckling. Well, that and Carrie and Co., as the female portion of the audience suddenly drove “Sex and the City 2″ activity onto the chart.

This is Week 3 of Risky’s new Bullseye forecast, and as we’ve moved forward, it’s become clear that Flixster’s web and mobile data — as compiled and represented in the nifty Bullseye grid — is pretty on the money.

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(Here’s last week’s Bullseye for contrast, and Carl DiOrio’s weekly boxoffice preview for this weekend, for additional info.)

Warner Bros.’ reboot of “A Nightmare on Elm Street” and Summit’s “Furry Vengeance” are the wide openers for the April 30 weekend, and, as the Bullseye makes clear, Freddy is going to be doing some vicious slicing and dicing.

Analysis after the jump …

Well, Risky’s 4/23 Bullseye hit many of its targets over the weekend.

The boxoffice through Sunday played out much as Flixster’s data forecasted, most notably in how DreamWorks Animation’s “How to Train Your Dragon” triumphed over the weekend’s new releases, “The Back-Up Plan” and “The Losers.” I had told you that the activity around the animated “Dragon,” which scored $15 million, was twice that of the other two, which had fairly tepid commitment from viewers going into the weekend. ”Losers,” especially, came in under studio predictions at $9.6 million.

But as I pointed out Friday, the female-driven heat leading up to Jennifer Lopez’s return to the screen was about half that of the Miley Cyrus vehicle “The Last Song,” which opened three weeks earlier, on March 31. “Plan” came in second place yesterday at $12.3 million. “Song” opened to … $25.6 million. Notice anything about the math? Yep, that’s a bingo!

OK, so “Song” actually had two extra days to reach that figure, but even without those it still had a $16.2 million haul over the three days of the weekend, which was higher than anyone predicted that week (if not quite twice that of “Plan”). Well, except for Flixster. These guys are clearly on to something.

Which means the Bullseye is on to something. Look for the next one Friday.

This is the second week of Risky’s new Bullseye forecast, courtesy of Flixster, and the grid and the back-up data show some interesting trends leading into the weekend. (Here’s last week’s Bullseye for contrast, and Carl DiOrio’s weekly boxoffice preview for additional info.)

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“The Losers” and “The Back-Up Plan” are the wide openers for the April 23 weekend, and, as the Bullseye makes clear, there ain’t gonna be a whole lot of crossover there. Click through for more analysis …

Today, Risky Business launches Bullseye, a weekly look at consumer interest in the coming weeks’ big releases.

Online movie-community powerhouse Flixster, which also owns the popular movie review site Rotten Tomatoes, collects oceans of data about audience enthusiasm for (or revulsion to) upcoming films based on activity at Flixster.com, their various other web properties and mobile apps. This amounts to tens of millions of monthly users discussing, rating, searching and exploring the movie choices directly in front of them and just a bit down the road.

In partnership with THR, Flixster’s digital geniuses have devised a composite picture of this voluminous info called Bullseye, a saucy visual that delivers this potentially predictive data with the simplicity of a slug to the chest. A giant circle near the center would indicate a true four-quadrant bullseye in the making — the Holy Grail of studio marketing.

But unlike studio tracking data, Bullseye bypasses what people are saying to show what people are actually doing. (THR’s Carl DiOrio analyzes potential boxoffice each week in Friday’s paper.)

Here’s Bullseye for the weekend of April 16, when “Kick-Ass” and “Death at a Funeral” open wide:

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Now, what does this mean?